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Capital expenditure jump good for growth - economists


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29/08/2008 - A surprise jump in capital expenditure makes an economic contraction the June quarter less likely, economists say.

But economists still expect an interest rate cut in September.

New private capital expenditure rose 5.7 per cent in real terms, seasonally adjusted, in the June quarter to $22.587 billion, from an upwardly revised $21.366 billion in the March quarter, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said.

The median market forecast was for a rise of two per cent.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia chief economist Michael Blythe said the surprise jump in capital spending showed the global credit crunch had failed to affect business plans, which would make a June quarter economic contraction less likely.

"It says, more importantly, that the changes to business confidence and the slowdown in the first half of the year and concerns about the global credit crunch haven't dented the positive story for Australia," he said.

An eight per cent jump in plant and equipment spending - much of it in the resources sector - was largely responsible for the rise in capital expenditure during the June quarter, Blythe said.

"It will have people revising their GDP (gross domestic product) guesses for next week," he said about the ABS national accounts data due on September 3.

Blythe said the strong rise in capital expenditure made a 25 basis point rate cut in September, from a present 7.25 per cent, more likely than a 50 basis point easing.

"It will be a cautious easing cycle the Reserve Bank embarks on," he said.

The Reserve Bank of Australia has indicated it is worried about slowing consumer spending.

A rise in capital expenditure would be expected to ease capacity constraints during a time of high inflation.

The seventh and final estimate of expenditure for 2007/08 is $86.404 billion, which is 11.4 per cent higher than the seventh and final estimate for 2006/07.

The third estimate of expenditure for 2008/09 is $99.758 billion, which is 26.2 per cent higher than the third estimate for 2007/08.

Estimates are gathered in a series of seven quarterly surveys, the first in January and February and the seventh immediately after the financial year ends in June.

Source: AAP NewsWire

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