Australia & NZ
This Month
Storefront views: 163,623
Product views: 393,227
Directory: Find:

Economy likely not as resilient as GDP numbers show


Printer Friendly Send Article Subscribe Bookmark and Share

10/06/2008 - The economy is probably not as resilient as the March quarter national accounts suggest, according to more timely data.

There is no recession on the horizon, but the national accounts released earlier this week by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) were flattering.

The figures showed the economy expanding, in real terms, at an annualised rate of 2.6 per cent through the December and March quarters.

That was below the long-term average of 3.3 per cent, but even then the figures most likely overstate the economy's momentum.

The signs of economic slowdown are getting harder to ignore.

The retail trade survey shows the trend has stopped rising altogether and probably falling in real terms.

Lending for housing is trending lower.

So are building approvals, both residential and non-residential.

Total credit growth is slowing, with the rise over the three months to April the slowest since 2001 when the number of unemployed jumped by 122,000.

Those figures take us up to April, but some private sector surveys can take us a bit further forward and they generally show us a similar picture.

The Australian Industry Group (AiGroup) conducts three monthly surveys.

The May editions of each were all released this week.

The first was the survey of manufacturing, backed by PricewaterhouseCoopers.

It showed activity in the sector expanding, but only just, with inventories building up and employment falling in four of the past five months.

It was a markedly more subdued pattern of activity to the one seen though 2007.

The second survey from the AiGroup, in conjunction with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, was of services industries.

It showed a sharp reversal in the sector, with two monthly falls in activity after 16 months of mostly strong growth.

The survey showed employment in services rising, but only very modestly in March, April and May after a year of consistently much stronger demand for labour.

The third AiGroup survey, with the Housing Industry Association, followed the same script on Friday, albeit with a more exaggerated swing from strength to weakness in the construction sector.

The industries covered by these three surveys collectively make up about two thirds of GDP (measured in terms of valued added) and nearly three quarters of total employment.

Perhaps more importantly, they have made a proportional contribution to economic growth.

Variations on the same theme can be found in the NAB's monthly business survey up to April, to be updated with the May results on Tuesday.

The bottom line is that however the economy performed in the March quarter on average - what the national accounts show - it appeared to slow during the course of that quarter and into April and May as well.

That means slower demand for labour and makes the government's budget-time forecast for unemployment to head up to 4.75 per cent from the current 4.2 per cent seem very plausible.

The slowing in trend employment growth from 29,000/month at the end of last year, to 20,000/month by April, is consistent with the weakening in economic growth in the December and March quarters.

But it seems to be only a matter of time before we see some much bleaker jobs figures.

The ABS will release its May employment report on Thursday.

Source: AAP NewsWire

Related News
Emissions trading will hit LNG projects -industry warns
Risk of Aust recession coming in 2009, says Westpac
Australia shouldn't talk itself into recession - RBA chief
Victoria's ailing industry sector gets $245 million boost
A "wind" of change is blowing through electricity market
B&B says to become specialist infrastructure business
Norfolk Group subsidiary wins $1 bln NSW rail contract
Find information and suppliers:
Automation Systems & Process Control
Business & Office Products & Services
Business Finance, Insurance & Investment
Business Software, ERP Software & Systems
Chemicals, Petroleum, Oil & Gas
Construction Equipment & Building Materials
Electrical & Power Equipment
Electronics Equipment & Components
Food Processing Equipment & Suppliers
I.T. Hardware & Equipment
Industrial Consumables & Services
Industrial Machinery & Equipment
Logistics, Truck Parts & Transport Equipment
Materials Handling Equipment & Storage
Metalworking Equipment, Machines & Tools
Mining Equipment, Machinery & Supplies
Packaging & Labelling Machines & Supplies
Safety Equipment, Clothing & Gear
Security & Protection
Test, Measurement & Instrumentation
Waste Management & Environment Control

Send this article to a colleague


 
To:  
  
From:  
   
Message:
(Optional)
 
Confirm:  
Protected by FormShield