The Australian Industry Group (Ai Group) Associate Director, Economics and Research, Tony Pensabene, said: "The Australian PCI® results provide further encouraging signs of an improvement in the industry from the extreme weakness reported at the start of the year, however, the conditions continue to exhibit volatility.
Underlying the move into positive territory in September was house building activity, which expanded for a third consecutive month on the back of low interest rates and the stimulus from the First Home Owners Grant both of which are now in reverse.
Moreover, while the pace in decline in new orders eased, it is clear that weak conditions persist in the apartment, engineering and commercial construction sectors
Industry conditions remain tough overall with companies facing intense competition to secure new contracts amid the on-going difficulties of tight credit conditions and poor investor sentiment.
While this persists, growth will be held back and conditions are likely to remain fragile," Pensabene said.
HIA Senior Economist, Ben Phillips said: It is very encouraging to see the Australian PCI® back in positive territory after such a long period of sustained sub 50 readings, and detached home building is responsible for much of the improvement.
The unwinding of low interest rates and the first home buyers boost threatens to reverse this welcome trend and ensure any recovery in new home trade-up buyer activity and new investment activity remains in a holding pattern," Phillips said.
This narrow base to recovery is exacerbated by a lack of credit constraining high rise residential development, a factor also at play in the commercial sector. We should see modest growth in new dwelling investment in 2009/10 at a time when strong growth is required, and for the construction sector overall it will be a negative year," Phillips said.
Australian PCI® Key Findings for September:
- The seasonally adjusted Australian PCI® rose by 8.4 points to 50.8 in September.
- Total industry activity moved from negative territory to a position of stabilisation.
- House building exhibited solid improvement in September, signalling the third consecutive month of growth in housing output.
- Engineering construction, commercial construction, and apartment building all registered a further fall in activity, although the pace of decline eased.
- New orders (seasonally adjusted) increased in September, although overall growth was at a modest level.
- Employment expanded in September as an increased number of firms adjusted capacity to accommodate higher workload requirements.
- In line with the improvement in overall market demand, deliveries from suppliers increased.
