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China's carbon shift 'will send strong signal the world over': expert

11 October, 2013

As Australia moves to scrap its pioneering carbon-pricing scheme, China is expected to have seven pilot pricing systems in place no later than 2015, followed by a national scheme, according to a new survey from The Australian National University.

The survey — a joint initiative between the Centre for Climate Economics and Policy in the ANU Crawford School and Beijing-based NGO China Carbon Forum — collected the opinions of 86 China-based carbon pricing experts.

The survey found strong confidence that China will introduce carbon-pricing mechanisms in coming years, that the price of emitting carbon will rise over time, and that China will have both a national emissions trading and a carbon tax by the end of the decade.

Professor Frank Jotzo, study co-leader and director of the Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, Associate said that nationwide emissions trading was set to become a reality in China.

"This would quite possibly be in tandem with a carbon tax and would give a boost to China's efforts to limit emissions growth and stop growth in coal use," Associate Professor Jotzo said.

"If the world's largest emitter embraces carbon pricing then this will send a strong signal the world over.

"A shift to market-based approaches to carbon control by the world's largest emitter is a big deal, especially at a time when Australia is poised to renounce its carbon pricing scheme.

"It would be somewhat ironic if China, with its tradition of heavy-handed direct control of its industry, were to move to emissions pricing while traditional market economies, such as Australia and the United States, rely on more direct government involvement.

"This is the first time that we can put numbers to what people who are close to the action expect to happen," he said.

The survey also indicates an expected combined Chinese price for emissions trading and carbon tax of RMB 70 ($12) per ton in 2020, rising sharply thereafter.

The large majority of experts surveyed were also confident that China will achieve or surpass its 2020 emissions intensity target, and almost all expect that new targets will be set for 2020 and 2025.

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craig | Monday, October 14, 2013, 11:02 AM
Please read this article(Reuters) - "China led a rise in global carbon dioxide emissions to a record high in 2012, more than offsetting falls in the United States and Europe, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday. Worldwide CO2 emissions rose by 1.4 percent to 31.6 billion tons, according to estimates from the Paris-based IEA. China is the biggest emitter and made the largest contribution to the global rise, spewing out an additional 300 million tons." Why do you guys keep harping on man made climate change? For the last 15 years, Earth’s surface temperatures have failed to rise, despite rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. All climate models predicted a rapid rise in global temperatures, in conflict with actual measured data. If you are going to put up information maybe try doing a little research and while you are at it stop your anti-Liberal attitude.
IndustrySearch Kalon | Monday, October 14, 2013, 12:03 PM
Craig, thank you for the feedback, however it should be noted that this is a report based on a survey by ANU and is attributed as such. IndustrySearch encourages healthy debate and publishes articles that are relevant to its readership.
Ken | Friday, October 18, 2013, 10:28 AM
Well Craig At my age ( not sure how old you are) maybe a nipper but in the 60's their was a stable climate situation The bushfires of yesterday in NSW should tell you something is happening or you have your head in the sand. Don't care what you reckon it's contributed to but it's happening and you should no that, if you research so much what is causing it then. Regards Ken B Eng Electrical
Johnny | Friday, October 18, 2013, 1:45 PM
No question that there is a change in the weather systems. How much that is caused by human activity I am not sure of. Maybe it is like the elephant and the mouse walking across the bridge and when it collapsed, the mouse said: We made the bridge collapse. The earth weather systems are changing, we are just along for the ride. If weather can not even be correctly predicted for next week, how can it be predicted with accuracy for 20 years into the future?
jonno | Friday, October 18, 2013, 3:52 PM
Craig, did the article mention any political party? Human induced climate change is based on sound scientific principles, and scientists keep harping on about it because few governments have the courage or intelligence (especially the current Aus gov't) to act on the evidence. When so much of the quality of modern life is based on science and engineering, you choose to ignore and even repudiate well established and well supported theory just because you don't understand it. Here (http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436710/Met-office-proof-global-warming-pause-climate-summit-confirms-global-temperature-stopped-rising.html) is an article that shows how the temperature has not changed significantly over the last 15 years. If you try to do some research yourself, you will find that '98 was a very hot year, approximately 0.5degC above the 1961-1990 average. The fact that the global temperature has not decreased over the last 15 years should be enough to indicate that there is real substance to the theory of human induced climate change. Instead of looking at newspaper articles that make a statement based on a small (and somewhat misleading) dataset, how about looking a longer term climate trend at a science site such as the American Institute of Physics (http://www.aip.org/history/climate/20ctrend.htm). If you would like to do some research (to support your viewpoint, or to enlighten yourself) please feel free to post the URLs here for the benefit of all of us.
Tomas | Sunday, October 20, 2013, 12:57 PM
If you are well read you would know all of nature runs on a cycle. All the way from the biggest objects of the universe to smallest parts of your immune system.. everything is cyclic. As is the weather patterns on Earth. However you can surely enhance the natural low and high points of any natural cycle and that's what we are doing to the Earths weather. It's not easy to completely break a natural cycle but you can bend it to one side very badly at least.
Goldie | Sunday, October 20, 2013, 4:49 PM
Ken, Your claim that the bush fires in NSW are a sign that something is happening is correct, we are into the normal bushfire season, something that happens every year. Yes they are the worst in NSW for many a year but some of the reporters on scene have spoken to locals who have been there for a long time and some of them are saying it was as bad as ones they experienced in the 50's and 60's ? Watched TV last night and one person said there had not been a descent burn through one area in about 20 years and there was plenty of fuel on the ground. Throw in a dry spell and strong winds and all the ingredients are there for what happened. Every 3-4 years we seem to have a bad one somewhere, I suppose it was NSW turn. More to the point and one that will surely raise hackles is, we should not have housing so close to bush land no matter how nice an environment it may be. I would suggest if you live in these surroundings particularly in the southern states, sooner or later we will be reading about.
john | Monday, October 21, 2013, 9:36 AM
Craig gets his answers from Alan Jones and the flat earth society.
craig | Monday, October 21, 2013, 11:17 AM
My inference that it was anti Liberal was due to the current governments climate policy that was criticized. The climate is changing and will continue to change as it has since the planet existed, it is my opinion that it is not man made climate change and that is why I commented on the rise in CO2 without a rise in temperature. There are so many other influences that are plainly being ignored by people with a vested interest in pushing the 'man made climate change' agenda. Not all the world scientists agree with man made climate change, let alone global warming see article from NASA: http://www.principia-scientific.org/latest-news/163-new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html Whether you support the idea of man made global warming or not, the article reports "China's carbon shift 'will send strong signal the world over': expert", my point is that China has not had a "carbon shift", considering it is "spewing out an additional 300 million tons" of Carbon emissions. China’s government planned 363 coal-fired power plants for construction across China, see article: http://insights.wri.org/news/2013/08/majority-china%E2%80%99s-proposed-coal-fired-power-plants-located-water-stressed-regions Enjoying the debate so far lol
jonno | Monday, October 21, 2013, 5:08 PM
There was no 'anti Liberal' comment in the article, however there was certainly comment about current Liberal policy (remembering that the Libs had at times thought a price on carbon would be an effective method of CO2 reduction). It is very possible that the author is an avid Liberal party supporter but does not like this particular policy, or likes this policy but in the interests of good journalism did not let political bias detract from the statement that China is seriously looking at (and testing) the implementation of a carbon price and carbon tax. Yes they are now the world’s biggest source of CO2 emissions, and their emissions will continue to grow in the short term. You will notice that there is no mention of CO2 reduction in China, but rather an emissions intensity target (relating emissions to GDP). In regard to the website at principia-scientific.org, yes CO2 and many other gases can be used as a refrigerant, but this is using the enthalpy of vaporization of the refrigerant rather than spectral properties. You can also use CO2 (as dry ice) to keep beer very (very) cold but this does not mean you can use dry ice for global cooling. In regard to NASAs SABER data, it does certainly indicate that CO2 (and NO) in the thermosphere reduces the impact of high intensity solar flares by absorbing some of the energy of the solar particles. The CO2 molecules emit that absorbed energy in the infra-red spectrum as a result of molecular bending and twisting. The effect that SABER is measuring is occurring in the upper atmosphere (85+ km up), not at ground level. There have been many people claiming that 'the science is not settled'. One of the great things about science is that it is really never 'settled', it is dynamic with new theories and new data, in an attempt to better understand the universe we live in. Rather than seeing this as prophecies of doom and gloom, we should see it as an opportunity to invest in solar/wind/wave/geothermal energies. I find it disappointing that we have let OUR solar manufacturing industry go, after considerable investment and progress. We could have been leaders in the solar industry and exporting panels around the world, but we chose to let the fossil fuel industries mislead us into thinking they have a long-term solution.
Stephen Fox | Thursday, October 31, 2013, 3:39 PM
Boys, listen to this. There is serious global warming ahead, but on a scale I have never heard discussed before. Not man-made global warming, but God-made. I quote, "But the present heavens and the earth by His word are laid up in store, kept for fire unto a day of judgement and destruction of ungodly men." And later, "But the day of the Lord will come as a thief, in which the heavens will pass away with a rushing noise, and the elements, burning with heat will be dissolved, and the earth and the works in it shall be burnt up." This is what I call serious global warming - on an unprecedented scale! Dont stress; you and I can do nothing at all to prevent it from happening. Just make sure your sins are washed away in the blood of Jesus and you will then escape the judgement of God soon to come on this poor world.